(DOWNLOAD) "Smart Money: Political Futures Markets are Better Predictors Than Polls (Trends)" by The American Conservative * eBook PDF Kindle ePub Free
eBook details
- Title: Smart Money: Political Futures Markets are Better Predictors Than Polls (Trends)
- Author : The American Conservative
- Release Date : January 02, 2008
- Genre: Politics & Current Events,Books,
- Pages : * pages
- Size : 54 KB
Description
IN NOVEMBER 2004, a man with half a million dollars was looking to double his money. He could have gone to a high-stakes table in Vegas. He could have put his money in a hedge fund and waited. Instead, he signed on to a Dublin-based website, Intrade, the night before the presidential election and put everything on George W. Bush, then running even with John Kerry. The next morning, he was a millionaire. Carl Wolfenden, the acting exchange manager of Intrade, explains the logic of prediction markets: "Our members sign up and trade with the intention of making money. One of the byproducts of that, the pricing information that they generate, translates into probability. The market pricing is measuring the probability of uncertain future events." The results are eerily accurate.